“Expansion in the oil sands will be supported by the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion, which is due to come online at the end of 2023,” said Carson Kearl, report author and an associate at EIR. “The increased takeaway supports our growth projection to the end of the decade when we believe increasing social and political headwinds will begin to slow or stall the region’s pace of growth.”
Key takeaways from the report:
- Canadian oil sands production is on pace to grow to 4.2 million bbl/d by 2030, up from ~3.3 million bbl/d today, driven by infrastructure buildouts that will increase takeaway capacity.
- Federal regulations, expected to be enacted in early 2023, will seek to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the oil and gas industry by 31% below 2005 levels in 2030 (or 42% below 2019 levels).
- Other challenges, including pipeline planning, uncertain longer-term economics and growing public environmental pushback against new mining projects, may also constrain growth.
