Restricting US interstate pipeline builds in the EIA’s projection results in 7.4 billion ft3/d less interregional capacity in 2050 than in the Reference case projection, which, for example, limits the amount of natural gas that can flow from the Appalachia production region to demand areas such as the Midwest.
The higher natural gas prices that result from capacity constraints primarily affect natural gas consumption in the US electric power sector, which is more price-sensitive than the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. In the No Interstate Natural Gas Pipeline Builds case, the EIA project 11% less natural gas-fired generation in the US during 2050 than in the Reference case. Higher natural gas prices make natural gas less economical for electric power generation compared with alternative sources, such as coal or renewables.
The EIA project that natural gas’s share of US electricity generation would fall from 34% in 2050 in the Reference Case to 31% in the No Interstate Natural Gas Pipeline Builds case. To make up for less natural gas-fired generation in the No Interstate Natural Gas Pipeline Builds case, electricity generation from renewables, coal, and nuclear sources increase.
The EIA project that restricting interstate US natural gas pipeline capacity would only slightly lower energy-related CO2 emissions in the US relative to the Reference case. Total CO2 from all fuel sources in 2050 are 4% lower in the No Interstate Natural Gas Pipeline Builds case than in the Reference case. The relatively small effect on CO2 emissions, despite the decline in natural gas consumption and growth in electric power generation from renewable sources, is due to the EIA’s forecast of increased coal-fired power generation, which would be more carbon intensive than the natural gas-fired generation it displaces.
